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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SV Elversberg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Arminia Bielefeld.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Elversberg beat Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.38 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.79 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SV Elversberg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.94 / defence 0.82 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.73 / defence 0.93, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 50% | Draw 30% | Arminia Bielefeld 20%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 50%, Arminia Bielefeld 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Elversberg's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights