SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SV Elversberg edge out 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Elversberg beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.94 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.78 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.25 / defence 1.07 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 41% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 34%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 65%, 1. FC Nürnberg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Elversberg's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.35 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights