SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Nürnberg's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
41%
2.44
25%
4.07
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
3.72
1.78
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.66
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
7%
14.40
5%
20.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.78 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.