🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 31, as SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg drew 3-3 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.50 xG and SV Elversberg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Elversberg outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.05 / defence 0.83 against SV Elversberg attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 44% | Draw 29% | SV Elversberg 27%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 61%, SV Elversberg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

SV Elversberg's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.44 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights