SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 39%, yet in-form SpVgg Greuther Fürth provide a compelling counter-argument — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 December 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 59% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 56% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.60 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.878 / defence 0.978 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.065 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.749 / away 1.523. Data: 39 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 39 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 39% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SpVgg Greuther Fürth (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 39% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.60 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.878 / def 0.978 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.065 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.749 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.59
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 39% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (6 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 3W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (0.88) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
39%
2.59
23%
4.26
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.19
1.59
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.66
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.59 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 14W 14D 11L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 11W 9D 19L from 39 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.44 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 1.95 PPG from 20 outings (11W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 5W 4D 11L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.38 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 39 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 14W 14D 11L in their last 39 games (1.44 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 11W 9D 19L in their last 39 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.95 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 50%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 65% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 70% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 65% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.