SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 December 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SV Darmstadt 98 0.90 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SV Darmstadt 98 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 59% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 57% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.78 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.887 / defence 0.942 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.982 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.167. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 44 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 53% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 22%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.55. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Dec 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 53% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.78 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.887 / def 0.942 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.982 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.08
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 20 December 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 53% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (6 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 3W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (0.89) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
53%
1.87
24%
4.16
22%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.87
1.08
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.44
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
4%
26.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.08 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 15W 16D 13L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 13W 10D 21L from 44 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.39 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 1.86 PPG from 22 outings (11W 8D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 5W 4D 13L from 22 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.34 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 15W 16D 13L in their last 44 games (1.39 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.86 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 50%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 68% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 27% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 68% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 68% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.