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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SV Darmstadt 98 cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Darmstadt 98 beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-2 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 2.00 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.99 / defence 0.83 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.05 / defence 1.43, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 57% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 61%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.39 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights