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SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SV Darmstadt 98.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.77 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.28 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.11 / defence 0.99 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 26%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 61%, SC Paderborn 07 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.40 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights