SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg make the trip to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to face SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SV Darmstadt 98's home record at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor: 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
SSV Jahn Regensburg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.00 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 3 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SV Darmstadt 98 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SSV Jahn Regensburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 63% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 66% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 2.37 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.990 / defence 1.070 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.534 / defence 1.625. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.316. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.625 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 33 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 73% | Draw 18% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 9%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 11.11. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 30% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 73% | Draw 18% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 49% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 2.37 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.990 / def 1.070 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.534 / def 1.625 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
0.75
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
49%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SV Darmstadt 98 3 - 1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 73% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (5 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 2W | Draws 0 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 3W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (0.99) and SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence rating (1.62), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.53x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
73%
1.38
18%
5.49
9%
10.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.12
0.75
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
1.38
73%
Home win
5.49
18%
Draw
10.94
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
9%
10.72
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
1%
117.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0.75 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 10W 9D 16L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form line: 7W 8D 20L from 35 games, 0.83 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 0.83 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 1W 2D 14L from 17 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SSV Jahn Regensburg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 0.74 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 10W 9D 16L in their last 35 games (1.11 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 7W 8D 20L in their last 35 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.47 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
0
Draws
3
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 47%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 59% (SSV Jahn Regensburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 35% of games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 35% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 59% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 3-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 2.37 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.75 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.53 / defence 1.62, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 73% | Draw 18% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 9%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 66%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.11 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.