SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fortuna Düsseldorf (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SV Darmstadt 98 face Fortuna Düsseldorf.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as SV Darmstadt 98 welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. SV Darmstadt 98 haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 home games — 0.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Fortuna Düsseldorf haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fortuna Düsseldorf — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, Fortuna Düsseldorf 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 47% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 62% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.23 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.181 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.339. Data: 0 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 34 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 25% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.00. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 30% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 25% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.23 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.181 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 25% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (4 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 0.85x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
25%
4.04
25%
3.98
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.05
1.82
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
4.04
25%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
16%
6.16
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
4%
24.87
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.82 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Darmstadt 98's recent record stands at 3W 8D 23L from 34 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. SV Darmstadt 98 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 8L across 34 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. Fortuna Düsseldorf haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortuna Düsseldorf by 1.32 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Darmstadt 98 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SV Darmstadt 98 have managed 1W 3D 13L from 17 games — 0.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 9W 5D 3L across 17 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.53 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 2.18 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 62%.
Last 34 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Pre-Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 3W 8D 23L in their last 34 games (0.50 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 18W 8D 8L in their last 34 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 0.35 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SV Darmstadt 98 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 47%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 71% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 53% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 59% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 71% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.23 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.82 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.18 / defence 0.89, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 25% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 62%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.