SV Darmstadt 98 4-0 1. FC Kaiserslautern – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor plays host to SV Darmstadt 98 versus 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 21). Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
1. FC Kaiserslautern have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in SV Darmstadt 98's favour (2.00 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended SV Darmstadt 98 1–3 1. FC Kaiserslautern — a 1. FC Kaiserslautern win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SV Darmstadt 98 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
1. FC Kaiserslautern goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 63% and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 61% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.71 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.163 / defence 0.824 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.901 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.359. Data: built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 54 games and 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 54.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 53% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 21%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.90 | Draw 3.83 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 4.71. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SV Darmstadt 98 50% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 53% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.71 / 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.163 / def 0.824 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.901 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.01
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern FAQs
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
SV Darmstadt 98 4 - 0 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 53% chance of winning, 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Darmstadt 98's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack (0.90x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 54 games and 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.83
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.72
1.01
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
4%
25.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.01 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Darmstadt 98's recent record stands at 21W 17D 16L from 54 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five.
1. FC Kaiserslautern, meanwhile, have gone 24W 12D 18L across 54 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.56 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SV Darmstadt 98 have managed 15W 7D 4L from their last 26 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's away record stands at 8W 6D 12L across their last 26 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Kaiserslautern are on 1.69 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 61%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98 (Home) vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern Form FAQs
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 21W 17D 16L in their last 54 games (1.48 PPG), while 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 24W 12D 18L in their last 54 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or 1. FC Kaiserslautern away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.00 PPG; 1. FC Kaiserslautern away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won SV Darmstadt 98 5-1 1. FC Kaiserslautern on 14 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Kaiserslautern — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
3
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-0 SV Darmstadt 98.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
1. FC Kaiserslautern see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 54%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 54% (1. FC Kaiserslautern).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / 1. FC Kaiserslautern away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 42% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 54% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 54% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Darmstadt 98 run riot with a 4-0 hammering of 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 4-0 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.71 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.01 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Kaiserslautern landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.16 / defence 0.82 against 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 53% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 21%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 61%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.48 PPG, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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