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Stalemate at SSV Ulm 1846's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 23, as SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Elversberg drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 0.93 xG and SV Elversberg 1.61 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SSV Ulm 1846 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SV Elversberg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against SV Elversberg attack 1.08 / defence 0.72, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 21% | Draw 27% | SV Elversberg 52%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 46%, SV Elversberg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SV Elversberg's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights