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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SSV Ulm 1846 edge out SV Darmstadt 98 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SSV Ulm 1846 beat SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.44 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.92 / defence 1.32, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 41% | Draw 29% | SV Darmstadt 98 30%, with SSV Ulm 1846 to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 38%, SV Darmstadt 98 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with SSV Ulm 1846 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights