🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SSV Ulm 1846.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat SSV Ulm 1846 0-2 at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.23 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.42 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SSV Ulm 1846 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.97 / defence 0.85, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 32% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 41%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 50%, SC Paderborn 07 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights