SSV Ulm 1846 5-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Ulm 1846 at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Ulm 1846 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees SSV Jahn Regensburg travel to Donaustadion to take on SSV Ulm 1846. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Donaustadion, SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 1W 3D 4L this season (8 games, 0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg away from home this season: 1W 1D 7L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SSV Ulm 1846 0.70 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SSV Ulm 1846, 1 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
SSV Ulm 1846 in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 72% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Ulm 1846 61% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 17%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 44% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.67 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.707 / defence 0.942 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.685 / defence 1.581. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.511. SSV Ulm 1846's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.581 — this is suppressing SSV Ulm 1846's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 18 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 52% | Draw 28% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 20%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 5.00. SSV Ulm 1846 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SSV Ulm 1846 as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Ulm 1846 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: SSV Ulm 1846 75% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Ulm 1846 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Donaustadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 52% | Draw 28% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG SSV Ulm 1846 1.67 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.707 / def 0.942 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.685 / def 1.581 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.511 • Poisson stance: SSV Ulm 1846 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Expected Goals
0.98
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Ulm 1846 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Donaustadion.
What was the final score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SSV Ulm 1846 5 - 1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is SSV Ulm 1846 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Donaustadion.
What competition is SSV Ulm 1846 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Ulm 1846 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives SSV Ulm 1846 a 52% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SSV Ulm 1846 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SSV Ulm 1846 and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Ulm 1846 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (1 meetings): SSV Ulm 1846 0W | Draws 0 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W.
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SSV Ulm 1846's attack at 0.71x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 1.58x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack versus SSV Ulm 1846's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Ulm 1846 Win
52%
1.92
28%
3.63
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Total xG
2.65
0.98
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
4%
26.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Ulm 1846 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are SSV Ulm 1846 and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 0.98 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Ulm 1846 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, SSV Ulm 1846 have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 2W 8D 8L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form line: 3W 2D 13L from 18 games, 0.61 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SSV Ulm 1846 on 0.78 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg on 0.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 0W 1D 7L from 8 away games — 0.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SSV Jahn Regensburg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Ulm 1846 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SSV Ulm 1846 are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 0.50 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Ulm 1846 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 17%.
Last 18 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 2W 8D 8L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 2D 13L in their last 18 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Ulm 1846 at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
SSV Ulm 1846's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Ulm 1846 at home: 0.75 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Ulm 1846 and SSV Jahn Regensburg runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SSV Ulm 1846
0
Draws
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 1, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Ulm 1846 and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when SSV Ulm 1846 5-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SSV Ulm 1846 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Ulm 1846 75%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SSV Ulm 1846) and 50% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Ulm 1846 home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Ulm 1846 play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of SSV Ulm 1846's recent matches and 25% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Ulm 1846 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SSV Ulm 1846's recent games and 50% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Ulm 1846 and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
SSV Ulm 1846 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SSV Ulm 1846 run riot with a 5-1 hammering of SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Ulm 1846 beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 5-1 at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.67 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.98 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. SSV Ulm 1846 beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.71 / defence 0.94 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.69 / defence 1.58, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 52% | Draw 28% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 20%, with SSV Ulm 1846 to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 44%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Ulm 1846 0.78 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SSV Ulm 1846 win broke the near-deadlock. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 3.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.