SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV – Match Report

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SSV Ulm 1846 and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SSV Ulm 1846 and Hamburger SV finished level at 1-1 at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.09 xG and Hamburger SV 1.65 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.70 / defence 0.93 against Hamburger SV attack 1.15 / defence 1.04, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 23% | Draw 29% | Hamburger SV 48%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 47%, Hamburger SV 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Hamburger SV's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights