SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SSV Jahn Regensburg face Hertha BSC.

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Analysis

Hertha BSC make the trip to Jahnstadion Regensburg to face SSV Jahn Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time.

Form

SSV Jahn Regensburg (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Hertha BSC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Hertha BSC have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 1.10 for Hertha BSC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 1 for Hertha BSC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended SSV Jahn Regensburg 0–2 Hertha BSC — a Hertha BSC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (last 21 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.

Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (last 21 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 29% versus Hertha BSC 76%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 52% | Hertha BSC 71%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SSV Jahn Regensburg surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Hertha BSC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.76 xG and Hertha BSC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.543 / defence 0.978 | Hertha BSC attack 1.051 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.502. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating of 0.543 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 19 games and Hertha BSC's last 53.

Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 17% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 55%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 5.72 | Draw 3.67 | Hertha BSC 1.81. The model has a clear lean to Hertha BSC (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SSV Jahn Regensburg 10% (last 10 home games) | Hertha BSC 80% (last 10 away games).

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