SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jahnstadion Regensburg plays host to SSV Jahn Regensburg versus 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 13). Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 2W 2D 3L from their last 7 home games — 1.14 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from their last 7 home games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — SSV Jahn Regensburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Magdeburg have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D L L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, 1. FC Magdeburg are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 1 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2023, ended SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–2 1. FC Magdeburg — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (last 14 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (last 14 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 21% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SSV Jahn Regensburg 57% | 1. FC Magdeburg 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.81 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.558 / defence 1.159 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.181 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.494. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating of 0.558 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 12 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 46.
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 12% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Magdeburg 65%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 8.01 | Draw 4.43 | 1. FC Magdeburg 1.54. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Magdeburg (65%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Magdeburg are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 7 home games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SSV Jahn Regensburg 14% (last 7 home games) | 1. FC Magdeburg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 13 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 12% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Magdeburg 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.81 / 1. FC Magdeburg 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.558 / def 1.159 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.181 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.494 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
2.05
1. FC Magdeburg xG
49%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg FAQs
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 0 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 13) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 12% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 65% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 0.56x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.18x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 2.05.
These ratings are built from SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 12 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
12%
8.01
23%
4.43
65%
1.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.85
2.05
1. FC Magdeburg xG
8.01
12%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.54
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
13%
7.74
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
2%
61.99
29%
3.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 2.05 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 14 games, going 3W 2D 9L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (4W 7D 3L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five.
1. FC Magdeburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across their last 7 home games, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.86 points per game from their last 7 away games (4W 1D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.36 PPG overall record — 1. FC Magdeburg travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Magdeburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 21% of their recent games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 64%.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg (Home) vs 1. FC Magdeburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg Form FAQs
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 2D 9L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 4W 7D 3L in their last 14 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
1. FC Magdeburg's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.14 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
1. FC Magdeburg have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 1. FC Magdeburg 3-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg on 20 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1
Draws
3
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2025: 1. FC Magdeburg 3-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Magdeburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 14%, 1. FC Magdeburg 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 100% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 86% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 100% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 86% of 1. FC Magdeburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Magdeburg edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.81 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 2.05 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SSV Jahn Regensburg fell 0.8 short of their projected output. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.56 / defence 1.16 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.18 / defence 0.94, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 12% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Magdeburg 65%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 57%, 1. FC Magdeburg 79%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Magdeburg arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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