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Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out SV Darmstadt 98 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SV Darmstadt 98 3-2 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.63 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.61 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 36%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%, SV Darmstadt 98 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.10 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights