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Shock result as SSV Ulm 1846 defy the odds to beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SSV Ulm 1846 beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.65 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.11 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.05 / defence 1.23 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.72 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 49% | Draw 27% | SSV Ulm 1846 25%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a SSV Ulm 1846 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%, SSV Ulm 1846 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.17 PPG, SSV Ulm 1846 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SSV Ulm 1846 win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights