SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host Holstein Kiel at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Holstein Kiel have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.20 PPG, Holstein Kiel 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 3 for Holstein Kiel and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Holstein Kiel trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58% versus Holstein Kiel 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58% | Holstein Kiel 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 xG and Holstein Kiel 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.905 / defence 1.034 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.776 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.158. Data: 43 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 43 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 29% | Holstein Kiel 25%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Holstein Kiel 4.00. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Holstein Kiel 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 29% | Holstein Kiel 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 / Holstein Kiel 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.905 / def 1.034 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.776 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Holstein Kiel xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 0 Holstein Kiel.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 47% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel?
Record (6 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W | Draws 1 | Holstein Kiel 3W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
47%
2.15
29%
3.47
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.31
0.93
Holstein Kiel xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
6%
16.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0.93 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 10D 21L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.14 PPG from 43 outings (12W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.07 PPG, Holstein Kiel on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (5W 5D 11L).
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.26 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 43 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 12W 10D 21L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Holstein Kiel away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.29 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
SpVgg Greuther Fürth go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel?
From 7 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, Holstein Kiel have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 Holstein Kiel.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 48%, Holstein Kiel 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 52% (Holstein Kiel).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Holstein Kiel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 62% of Holstein Kiel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 52% of Holstein Kiel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out Holstein Kiel 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Holstein Kiel 1-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 xG and Holstein Kiel 0.93 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Holstein Kiel landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.78 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 29% | Holstein Kiel 25%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%, Holstein Kiel 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.07 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.