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Holstein Kiel cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Holstein Kiel beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.12 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.17 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Holstein Kiel outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.12 / defence 1.17 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.83 / defence 1.19, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% | Draw 21% | Holstein Kiel 20%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Holstein Kiel win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61%, Holstein Kiel 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Holstein Kiel winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights