SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Hertha BSC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Hertha BSC 2-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.33 xG and Hertha BSC 2.47 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hertha BSC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.88 / defence 1.33 against Hertha BSC attack 1.20 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 18% | Draw 21% | Hertha BSC 61%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%, Hertha BSC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Hertha BSC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.33 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights