SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.88) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 2.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 1-3 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
18%
5.60
21%
4.73
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.5%
Away win
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.79
2.47
Hertha BSC xG
5.60
18%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
8%
11.79
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
2%
66.03
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2.47 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.