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Dominant SpVgg Greuther Fürth run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fortuna Düsseldorf.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.44 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.94 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.95 / defence 1.18 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.63 / defence 0.94, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 30% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 23%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.09 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights