SC Paderborn 07 3-0 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Sandhausen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Sandhausen make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Home Deluxe Arena, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Home Deluxe Arena.
SV Sandhausen have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SV Sandhausen have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward SC Paderborn 07. A 1.00 PPG lead over SV Sandhausen (1.90 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 0 for SV Sandhausen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 2–0 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
SV Sandhausen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 60% and SV Sandhausen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 64% | SV Sandhausen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.08 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.461 / defence 0.897 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.916 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.290. SC Paderborn 07 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.461 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 SC Paderborn 07 games / 45 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 61% | Draw 21% | SV Sandhausen 18%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | SV Sandhausen 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 50% | SV Sandhausen 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 61% | Draw 21% | SV Sandhausen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.08 / SV Sandhausen 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.461 / def 0.897 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.916 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.06
SV Sandhausen xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Sandhausen?
SC Paderborn 07 3 - 0 SV Sandhausen.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Sandhausen part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 61% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Sandhausen?
Record (2 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 1 | SV Sandhausen 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Sandhausen in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against SV Sandhausen's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — SV Sandhausen's attack (0.92x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.70
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.14
1.06
SV Sandhausen xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
12%
8.01
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
2%
44.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.06 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Sandhausen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 20W 13D 12L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Sandhausen's form line: 13W 14D 18L from 45 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SV Sandhausen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L).
On the road, SV Sandhausen have gone 6W 8D 8L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 1.20 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; SV Sandhausen in 64%.
Last 45 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
SV Sandhausen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 13D 12L in their last 45 games (1.62 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 13W 14D 18L in their last 45 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SV Sandhausen away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.50 PPG; SV Sandhausen away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 3-0 on 16 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Sandhausen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
0
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Sandhausen?
From 4 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, SV Sandhausen have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2023, when SV Sandhausen 2-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Sandhausen?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for SC Paderborn 07, 68% for SV Sandhausen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (SC Paderborn 07) and 46% (SV Sandhausen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play SV Sandhausen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 68% of SV Sandhausen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of SC Paderborn 07's recent games and 46% of SV Sandhausen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SV Sandhausen tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, SV Sandhausen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Paderborn 07 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SV Sandhausen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat SV Sandhausen 3-0 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.08 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.06 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Sandhausen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.46 / defence 0.90 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 61% | Draw 21% | SV Sandhausen 18%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 64%, SV Sandhausen 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.