SC Paderborn 07 3-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 11 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 4W 2D 4L at Home Deluxe Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
SV Darmstadt 98's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. SC Paderborn 07's 1.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of SV Darmstadt 98's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
SV Darmstadt 98 hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
It is worth noting that SV Darmstadt 98 have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 71% versus SV Darmstadt 98 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 74% | SV Darmstadt 98 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.77 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.011 / defence 1.019 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.299. Data: 35 SC Paderborn 07 games / 1 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 51% | Draw 27% | SV Darmstadt 98 22%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | SV Darmstadt 98 4.55. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
SV Darmstadt 98 lead the H2H ledger, but SC Paderborn 07 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: SC Paderborn 07 50% | SV Darmstadt 98 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 51% | Draw 27% | SV Darmstadt 98 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.77 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.011 / def 1.019 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.13
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
SC Paderborn 07 3 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 51% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (4 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 0W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 4W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (1.01) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (0.85x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.73
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.89
1.13
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
4%
26.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.13 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 35 games, going 16W 7D 12L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 0.49 PPG from 35 outings (3W 8D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 7W 4D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 0.65 points per game from 17 outings (2W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 0.86 scored and 2.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 16W 7D 12L in their last 35 games (1.57 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 3W 8D 24L in their last 35 (0.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.47 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 3-0 on 15 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
4
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 65%, SV Darmstadt 98 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for SC Paderborn 07 and 59% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 47% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 59% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.77 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.13 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 51% | Draw 27% | SV Darmstadt 98 22%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 74%, SV Darmstadt 98 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.49. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.