SC Paderborn 07 3-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 70% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg meet at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 October 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form

SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

SSV Jahn Regensburg have collected 0.89 PPG across their last 9 games: 2W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.56 per game is modest, conceding 2.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.11 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings (22%). Both teams have scored in only 22% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form ledger tips toward SC Paderborn 07. A 1.01 PPG lead over SSV Jahn Regensburg (1.90 vs 0.89) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, SSV Jahn Regensburg edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended SC Paderborn 07 0–1 SSV Jahn Regensburg — a SSV Jahn Regensburg win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

SSV Jahn Regensburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 67% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 78% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 22%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 67% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.20 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.002 / defence 0.834 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.541 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.522. SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence rating of 1.422 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SC Paderborn 07's projected output up. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating of 0.541 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 41 games and SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 7.

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 70% | Draw 22% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 8%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.43 | Draw 4.52 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 12.55. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (70%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 4 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 60% (last 10 home games) | SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% (last 4 away games).

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