Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf host Hamburger SV at Merkur Spiel-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortuna Düsseldorf — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Merkur Spiel-Arena this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur Spiel-Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Hamburger SV have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Fortuna Düsseldorf) versus 1.80 (Hamburger SV). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, Hamburger SV 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% versus Hamburger SV 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% | Hamburger SV 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.30 xG and Hamburger SV 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.951 / defence 0.793 | Hamburger SV attack 0.972 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.497. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 41 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 37% | Draw 33% | Hamburger SV 30%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Hamburger SV 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Düsseldorf 30% | Hamburger SV 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 37% | Draw 33% | Hamburger SV 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.30 / Hamburger SV 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.951 / def 0.793 | Hamburger SV attack 0.972 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Hamburger SV xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 0 - 3 Hamburger SV.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 37% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV?
Record (6 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W | Draws 3 | Hamburger SV 2W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Hamburger SV (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
37%
2.69
33%
3.05
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.45
1.15
Hamburger SV xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.15 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 23W 10D 8L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hamburger SV's form line: 20W 10D 11L from 41 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.93 PPG, Hamburger SV on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (10W 5D 5L).
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 6W 8D 6L from 20 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hamburger SV's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.95 scored and 1.27 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Last 41 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
Hamburger SV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 23W 10D 8L in their last 41 games (1.93 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 20W 10D 11L in their last 41 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Hamburger SV away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.75 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hamburger SV go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Hamburger SV won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Hamburger SV 4-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%, Hamburger SV 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 60% (Hamburger SV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 65% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 60% of Hamburger SV's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.30 xG and Hamburger SV 1.15 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hamburger SV outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.95 / defence 0.79 against Hamburger SV attack 0.97 / defence 0.87, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 37% | Draw 33% | Hamburger SV 30%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Hamburger SV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%, Hamburger SV 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.93 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.