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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out Holstein Kiel 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat Holstein Kiel 2-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.98 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.14 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 56% | Draw 24% | Holstein Kiel 21%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 62%, Holstein Kiel 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights