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Dominant SC Paderborn 07 run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Hertha BSC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat Hertha BSC 5-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.34 xG and Hertha BSC 1.81 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against Hertha BSC attack 1.27 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 27% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 47%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 61%, Hertha BSC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Hertha BSC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.70 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights