SC Paderborn 07 2-1 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Hannover 96 travel to Home Deluxe Arena to take on SC Paderborn 07. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 September 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's home record at Home Deluxe Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Home Deluxe Arena this season.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hannover 96 have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hannover 96 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hannover 96's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Paderborn 07 2.10 PPG, Hannover 96 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of SC Paderborn 07: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Hannover 96, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 2–3 with Hannover 96 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SC Paderborn 07 and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hannover 96 trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 72% and Hannover 96 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 72% | Hannover 96 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.15 xG and Hannover 96 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.937 / defence 0.922 | Hannover 96 attack 0.780 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.340. Hannover 96's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 SC Paderborn 07 games / 39 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 37% | Draw 36% | Hannover 96 28%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Hannover 96 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: SC Paderborn 07 60% | Hannover 96 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 37% | Draw 36% | Hannover 96 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.15 / Hannover 96 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.937 / def 0.922 | Hannover 96 attack 0.780 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Hannover 96 xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 1 Hannover 96.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 37% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96?
Record (6 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 4W | Draws 1 | Hannover 96 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Hannover 96 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.94x the league average against Hannover 96's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
37%
2.71
36%
2.81
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.11
0.96
Hannover 96 xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 0.96 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 17W 10D 12L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hannover 96's form line: 16W 14D 9L from 39 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Hannover 96, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.56 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 5W 8D 6L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.67 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Hannover 96 in 62%.
Last 39 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
Hannover 96
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 17W 10D 12L in their last 39 games (1.56 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 16W 14D 9L in their last 39 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Hannover 96 away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.53 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2022, when SC Paderborn 07 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Paderborn 07
3
Draws
2
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, Hannover 96 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Hannover 96 1-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 63%, Hannover 96 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (SC Paderborn 07) and 53% (Hannover 96). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Hannover 96?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 58% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 53% of Hannover 96's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out Hannover 96 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hannover 96 2-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.15 xG and Hannover 96 0.96 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Hannover 96 attack 0.78 / defence 0.80, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 37% | Draw 36% | Hannover 96 28%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 72%, Hannover 96 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Hannover 96's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.56 PPG, Hannover 96 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.