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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Fortuna Düsseldorf defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.22 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.30 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.03 / defence 1.34, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 58% | Draw 20% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 22%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Düsseldorf win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 61%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.64 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights