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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Schalke 04 defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Schalke 04 beat SC Paderborn 07 2-3 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.53 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.37 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.26 / defence 1.10 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.94 / defence 0.76, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 40% | Draw 28% | FC Schalke 04 32%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC Schalke 04 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 61%, FC Schalke 04 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.77 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights