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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig finished level at 1-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.32 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.30 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.30 / defence 1.07 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 59% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 20%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 62%, Eintracht Braunschweig 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights