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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out Dynamo Dresden 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat Dynamo Dresden 2-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.10 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.39 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.18 / defence 1.06 against Dynamo Dresden attack 1.00 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 53% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Dresden 24%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 62%, Dynamo Dresden 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights