🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out Arminia Bielefeld 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat Arminia Bielefeld 4-3 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.65 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.97 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arminia Bielefeld outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.02 / defence 0.83 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 53% | Draw 25% | Arminia Bielefeld 22%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 38%, Arminia Bielefeld 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights