🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 host Arminia Bielefeld at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 October 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SC Paderborn 07's home record at Home Deluxe Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 3W 1D 4L from 8 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.25 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Arminia Bielefeld's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, SC Paderborn 07 have the edge — a 0.75 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.25) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Paderborn 07 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SC Paderborn 07, 1 for Arminia Bielefeld and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

Arminia Bielefeld in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 50% and Arminia Bielefeld 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 38% | Arminia Bielefeld 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.65 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.025 / defence 0.831 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.823 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.413. Data: 42 SC Paderborn 07 games / 8 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 53% | Draw 25% | Arminia Bielefeld 22%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Arminia Bielefeld 4.55. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: SC Paderborn 07 70% | Arminia Bielefeld 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights