SC Paderborn 07 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face 1. FC Nürnberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 21). Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SC Paderborn 07 at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.70 for 1. FC Nürnberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 away games) — SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2025, ended SC Paderborn 07 0–0 1. FC Nürnberg — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 65% and 1. FC Nürnberg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 61% | 1. FC Nürnberg 65%). Note also that 1. FC Nürnberg surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while SC Paderborn 07 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.66 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.065 / defence 1.061 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.788 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.330. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 54 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 54.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 49% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Nürnberg 24%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.04 | Draw 3.75 | 1. FC Nürnberg 4.11. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 70% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Nürnberg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 49% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Nürnberg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.66 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.065 / def 1.061 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.788 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.11
1. FC Nürnberg xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg FAQs
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 49% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Nürnberg's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (0.79x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from SC Paderborn 07's last 54 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.75
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.77
1.11
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
5%
21.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.11 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 26W 13D 15L from 54 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 22L across 54 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.37 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 13W 4D 9L from their last 26 home games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 8W 5D 13L across their last 26 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.54 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; 1. FC Nürnberg in 63%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
SC Paderborn 07 (Home) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg Form FAQs
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 26W 13D 15L in their last 54 games (1.69 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 21W 11D 22L in their last 54 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.65 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: SC Paderborn 07 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for SC Paderborn 07, 69% for 1. FC Nürnberg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for SC Paderborn 07 and 65% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 69% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 65% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 69% of 1. FC Nürnberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.66 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.11 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.06 / defence 1.06 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 49% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Nürnberg 24%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 61%, 1. FC Nürnberg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.69 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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