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Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Magdeburg 4-3 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.13 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.80 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 1.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.20 / defence 1.02 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.35 / defence 1.17, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 45% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 32%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 61%, 1. FC Magdeburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights