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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat 1. FC Magdeburg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Magdeburg 2-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.55 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.65 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.12 / defence 1.10 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.12 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 35% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 40%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 67%, 1. FC Magdeburg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.58 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights