SC Paderborn 07 2-1 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Home Deluxe Arena, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Home Deluxe Arena this season.
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.20 for 1. FC Magdeburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SC Paderborn 07 register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 1W, 1. FC Magdeburg 0W, 4D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 70% and 1. FC Magdeburg 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 67% | 1. FC Magdeburg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.55 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.123 / defence 1.100 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.122 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.337. Data: 66 SC Paderborn 07 games / 66 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 35% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 40%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | 1. FC Magdeburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 35% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.55 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.123 / def 1.100 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.122 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.65
1. FC Magdeburg xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 35% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (5 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 4 | 1. FC Magdeburg 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.12x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
35%
2.85
25%
3.94
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.20
1.65
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
7%
14.83
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.65 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 66 games, going 29W 17D 20L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.33 PPG from 66 outings (22W 22D 22L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.33 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 14W 7D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.36 points per game from 33 outings (12W 9D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.59 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 29W 17D 20L in their last 66 games (1.58 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 22W 22D 22L in their last 66 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.48 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SC Paderborn 07 have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SC Paderborn 07
4
Draws
0
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 4-3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 67%, 1. FC Magdeburg 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SC Paderborn 07 and 54% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 61% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 54% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat 1. FC Magdeburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Magdeburg 2-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.55 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.65 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.12 / defence 1.10 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.12 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 35% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 40%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 67%, 1. FC Magdeburg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.58 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.