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Prediction vindicated as Rot-Weiß Essen edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rot-Weiß Essen beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 at Stadion an der Hafenstrasse, Final, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rot-Weiß Essen 1.52 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.24 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rot-Weiß Essen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 0/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rot-Weiß Essen 43% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%, with Rot-Weiß Essen to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights