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Poisson model rates Rot-Weiß Essen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rot-Weiß Essen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Rot-Weiß Essen host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Stadion an der Hafenstrasse in 2. Bundesliga, Final. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rot-Weiß Essen 1.52 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rot-Weiß Essen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.859 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.255. Data: 0 Rot-Weiß Essen games / 68 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rot-Weiß Essen 43% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%. Fair-value odds: Rot-Weiß Essen 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rot-Weiß Essen are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rot-Weiß Essen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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