Preußen Münster 1-3 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg make the trip to Preussenstadion to face Preußen Münster in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Preußen Münster (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preußen Münster, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Preußen Münster have posted 2W 5D 3L at Preussenstadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Magdeburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Preußen Münster lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Preußen Münster half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Preußen Münster 63% and 1. FC Magdeburg 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preußen Münster 52% | 1. FC Magdeburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 1.56 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.840 / defence 1.151 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.293 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.295. 1. FC Magdeburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — the away xG of 1.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Preußen Münster games / 60 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 30% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 45%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.22. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Preußen Münster 80% | 1. FC Magdeburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Preussenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 30% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Preußen Münster 1.56 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.840 / def 1.151 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.293 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
1.93
1. FC Magdeburg xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Preussenstadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Preußen Münster 1 - 3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Preussenstadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 30% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (3 meetings): Preußen Münster 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2W.
What form are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
Preußen Münster (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Preußen Münster's attack rating (0.84) and 1. FC Magdeburg's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.29x) against Preußen Münster's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
30%
3.28
24%
4.14
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
3.49
1.93
1. FC Magdeburg xG
3.28
30%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
15%
6.88
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
4%
22.57
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.93 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Preußen Münster come into this having played 60 games, going 14W 20D 26L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Preußen Münster is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.28 PPG from 60 outings (21W 14D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Preußen Münster against 1.28 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Preußen Münster's home form reads 7W 13D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.57 points per game from 30 outings (14W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Magdeburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Preußen Münster are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.67 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preußen Münster have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 14W 20D 26L in their last 60 games (1.03 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preußen Münster at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
1. FC Magdeburg's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preußen Münster at home: 1.13 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: 1. FC Magdeburg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Preußen Münster won 0-5 on 2 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Preußen Münster have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Preußen Münster
0
Draws
3
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 4 meetings on record, Preußen Münster have won 1, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Preußen Münster 1-3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Magdeburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Preußen Münster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Preußen Münster, 63% for 1. FC Magdeburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Preußen Münster) and 63% (1. FC Magdeburg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preußen Münster play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Preußen Münster's games and 63% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Preußen Münster's recent games and 63% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
Preußen Münster have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Preußen Münster.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat Preußen Münster 1-3 at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.56 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.93 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 1.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.29 / defence 1.17, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 30% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 45%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 52%, 1. FC Magdeburg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 1.03 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.