Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Magdeburg edge out Preußen Münster 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Magdeburg beat Preußen Münster 1-2 at Preußen-Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 0.96 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.71 / defence 0.93 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 21% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 43%, 1. FC Magdeburg 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Magdeburg arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights