Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Preußen Münster's attack rating (0.71) and 1. FC Magdeburg's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.10x) against Preußen Münster's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
21%
4.81
30%
3.37
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
2.53
1.57
1. FC Magdeburg xG
4.81
21%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
4%
23.26
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.5 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.57 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.