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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 21, as Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.69 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.32 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.10 / defence 1.23 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.80 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 45% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 29%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 70%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.44 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights