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Shock result as SSV Jahn Regensburg defy the odds to beat SV Darmstadt 98 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SSV Jahn Regensburg beat SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.84 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 2.05 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.46 / defence 1.01 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.32 / defence 1.19, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 12% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 64%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a SSV Jahn Regensburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%, SV Darmstadt 98 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights