🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 meet at Jahnstadion Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.

Current Form

SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SSV Jahn Regensburg at Jahnstadion Regensburg this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 home games — 0.89 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SV Darmstadt 98 away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

SV Darmstadt 98 arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2W, SV Darmstadt 98 2W, 0D.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.

SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 61%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 22% versus SV Darmstadt 98 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% | SV Darmstadt 98 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.84 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.463 / defence 1.013 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.321 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.533. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.463 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SV Darmstadt 98 have an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 16 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 12% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 64%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 8.33 | Draw 4.17 | SV Darmstadt 98 1.56. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: SSV Jahn Regensburg 11% | SV Darmstadt 98 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights